Is Roch Cholowsky the Biggest No. 1 Draft Lock Since Adley Rutschman? | 2026 MLB Draft Analysis (2026)

Is Roch Cholowsky the next Adley Rutschman? The UCLA shortstop is the runaway favorite to go No. 1 overall to the White Sox in December, but he's not the biggest lock from the last decade. That distinction belongs to Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, who dominated in 2019 with a .408/.505/.628 sophomore season and Most Outstanding Player accolades at the College World Series. He became the No. 1 choice by the Orioles after an even better junior year, outperforming Bobby Witt Jr. in a strong Draft class. After Rutschman and Cholowsky, Vanderbilt right-hander Kumar Rocker in 2021 was the most clear-cut December top prospect, though he slid to the Mets at No. 10 due to inconsistencies during his Draft year. Who else might challenge Cholowsky for the top pick? Shortstop Gulliver Prep's Jacob Lombard and outfielder Georgia Tech's Drew Burress are strong contenders. Louisiana State's Derek Curiel could also be a factor if he develops more power and handles center field. But here's the question: If you had to pick a lower-ranked prospect who could rise like Liam Doyle or Jojo Parker in the 26th draft, who would you choose and why? Last year saw dramatic jumps between preseason Draft Top 100 rankings and actual picks in July, with Kade Anderson, Doyle, Parker, and Steele Hall all rising significantly. However, 2024 was an exception, with only one leap, as Christian Moore rose from No. 67 to the eighth selection by the Angels. The key is predicting these climbs, as Arkansas left-hander Hunter Dietz stands out with a potential top-10 pick despite a stress fracture in his elbow. High school bats like Etowah HS outfielder Trevor Condon and Nazareth Academy infielder Landon Thome could also significantly climb Draft boards in the spring. As for this year's AFL, Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle is the clear-cut candidate for Rookie of the Year, with White Sox outfielder Braden Montgomery, left-hander Hagen Smith, and Rockies first baseman Charlie Condon as longshot possibilities.

Is Roch Cholowsky the Biggest No. 1 Draft Lock Since Adley Rutschman? | 2026 MLB Draft Analysis (2026)
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